Detroit Lions 2010 Season Preview
Football Betting Lines
08/21/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - An X marks the spot through the scope of a high-powered military sniper rifle. Four or five wins are what the Detroit Lions should be realistically aiming for in 2010 under second-year head coach Jim Schwartz.
The Lions, who've been as deadly as a cap gun in recent years, made NFL history two seasons ago by becoming the first team to go 0-16 in a season, and believed it was time for a change.
They felt Rod Marinelli's time was up and targeted Schwartz as the new man in charge prior to the 2009 campaign, during which he compiled a 2-14 record. Two wins are undoubtedly better than none, giving hope for a few more victories in the upcoming 2010 season.
They're not pegged to compete in the NFC North, but the Lions are beginning to show signs of life following a busy offseason that landed Pro Bowl defensive end Kyle Vanden Bosch and the No. 2 overall pick in the draft. After Detroit grabbed a franchise quarterback in Matthew Stafford with the first overall pick in 2009, Nebraska defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh became the second player selected back in April.
"Ndamukong Suh, he's a good player and he makes other players around him better," Lions senior vice president and general manager Martin Mayhew said following the draft. "So he's going to make our defense better. Just his presence alone will make that defense a much better unit I think."
The addition of Stafford got the offensive wheels in motion a year ago, and the Lions are hoping Suh can do the same for a stop unit that finished near the bottom of every major category. Rebuilding a franchise is much like renovating a dilapidated house, and the additions of Stafford and Suh are raising the level of optimism in the Motor City.
There are, however, still plenty of holes Detroit has to plug before becoming a legitimate contender again in this league. That will take some time, but as the old adage goes, "Rome wasn't built in a day". The first of many pillars was set at the quarterback position, and longtime owner William Clay Ford is hoping Suh and others can solidify a cracked foundation on defense.
Ford hasn't been to the playoffs since the 1999 season and probably won't get back there for a few more years. Having won 12 games over the past four seasons usually leaves skeptics wondering when this team will ever have manage its first winning campaign since 2000, when the squad finished 9-7 and missed out on the playoffs. With a new roster and a few top draft picks, the Lions may finally have a winning formula in place to get there in the foreseeable future.
Below we take a capsule look at the 2010 edition of the Detroit Lions, with a personnel evaluation and prognosis included therein:
2009 RECORD: 2-14 (4th, NFC North)
LAST PLAYOFF APPEARANCE: 1999, lost to Washington, 27-13, in NFC Wild Card
COACH (RECORD): Jim Schwartz (2-14 in one season with Lions, 2-14 overall)
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: Scott Linehan
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: Gunther Cunningham
OFFENSIVE STAR: Calvin Johnson, WR (67 receptions, 984 yards, 5 TD)
DEFENSIVE STAR: Ndamukong Suh, DT (1st Round, Nebraska)
OFFENSIVE TEAM RANKS: 24th rushing, 21st passing, 27th scoring
DEFENSIVE TEAM RANKS: 25th rushing, 32nd passing, 32nd scoring
KEY ADDITIONS: QB Shaun Hill (from 49ers), RB Jahvid Best (1st Round, California), RB DeDe Dorsey (from Bengals), WR Nate Burleson (from Seahawks), TE Tony Scheffler (from Broncos), G Rob Sims (from Seahawks), DE Kyle Vanden Bosch (from Titans), DE Lawrence Jackson (from Seahawks), DT Ndamukong Suh (1st Round, Nebraska), LB Landon Johnson (from Panthers), LB Ashlee Palmer (from Bills), CB Dre' Bly (from 49ers), CB Dante Wesley (from Panthers), CB Chris Houston (from Falcons), CB Jonathan Wade (from Rams), CB Amari Spievy (3rd Round, Iowa), S C.C. Brown (from Giants), S David Roach (from Rams)
KEY DEPARTURES: QB Daunte Culpepper (not tendered), QB Patrick Ramsey (to Saints), TE Casey FitzSimmons (retired), OL Daniel Loper (to Raiders), T Damion Cook (not tendered), DE Dewayne White (released), LB Ernie Sims (to Eagles), LB Larry Foote (to Steelers), OLB Cody Spencer (not tendered), CB William James (to 49ers), CB DeAngelo Smith (to Browns), CB Kevin Hobbs (to Dolphins), CB Phillip Buchanon (to Redskins), CB Anthony Henry (not tendered)
QB: It's been a quarterback carousel in Detroit for decades, and this will be a big year for Stafford to show what he learned in 2009. The former Georgia star (2,267 yards, 13 TD, 20 INT) appeared in 10 games last year before a shoulder injury ended his season prematurely. In the midst of his rookie strife, Stafford was able to engineer the Lions to a pair of wins, including a 38-37 victory over Cleveland in which he recorded a season-best 112.7 passer rating. The youngest player to start the regular season at QB since drew Drew Bledsoe in 1993, Stafford hopes there's more of those performances to come in 2010, but must cut down on the interceptions. Stafford, who also battled through a kneecap ailment, should have more responsibility and a better feel of the offense. The strong-armed and accurate signal-caller will have Shaun Hill and Drew Stanton as his backups. Hill spent the past three seasons with the 49ers, while Stanton appeared in four games in 2009 for an offense that ranked 21st in passing (198.0 ypg).
RB: Nobody on this team seems more determined to put a mediocre season behind him than running back Kevin Smith. Smith (747 yards, 4 TD) said this offseason that he'll be running "with a controlled, angry pace" and that last year's game film is his motivation. Smith is out to prove the NFL and even some of his coaches wrong after entering the league in 2008 with high expectations. He has been following a proper workout regimen to stay healthy for the season and keep his legs fresh after an ACL tear prematurely ended his season. Meanwhile, Detroit swapped picks with Minnesota in this year's draft, moving up to No. 30 to select Jahvid Best from California. Best has good hands and is a shifty back with speed, bringing a nice change of pace to the Detroit backfield. Maurice Morris (384 yards, 2 TD) is also in line for a few carries each week.
WR/TE: Another one of Schwartz's building blocks for future success is former top pick Calvin Johnson. Johnson (984 yards, 5 TD) was selected No. 2 overall in 2007 and has emerged as a top receiver in the league with his blazing speed, great hands and size. Johnson makes Stafford's job a lot easier even though he may take on double- and triple-coverage. Detroit scoured the market for a wideout to complement Johnson and signed wide receiver Nate Burleson to a five-year contract. Burleson brings veteran leadership and speed to the receiving corps and played the last four years in Seattle, amassing 63 catches for 812 yards and three touchdowns in 13 games last season. Offensive coordinator Scott Linehan is hoping the addition of Burleson will free up Johnson and eliminate the pressure on Johnson. Bryant Johnson (417 yards, 3 TD) and Dennis Northcutt (357 yards, TD) didn't do much last season and are back for another year. The Lions also added tight end Tony Scheffler in the offseason to help young TE Brandon Pettigrew (346 yards, 2 TD), who suffered an ACL tear last season. Will Heller (296 yards, 3 TD) finished tied for second in TD catches a year ago.
OL: Stafford was sacked 24 times behind an offensive line that is anchored by left tackle Jeff Backus and center Dominic Raiola. In order to bolster the offensive line, the Lions acquired guard Rob Sims and a seventh-round 2010 draft pick from the Seattle Seahawks over the summer in exchange for defensive end Robert Henderson and a fifth-round 2010 draft pick. Detroit finished 24th in rushing last year, finishing with 101.0 yards per game. Even during the days of Barry Sanders the offensive line was brutal and the All-Pro running back was able to rip off 100-yard games with ease. Don't expect that from Smith or Best, but the line should be better in protecting Stafford. Daniel Loper was released, while Manny Ramirez and Stephen Peterman will battle for playing time. Pettigrew entered the NFL as a great pass blocker, something 2008 pick Gosder Cherilus needs to work on. Veteran tackle Jon Jansen hopes to crack the starting lineup for the Lions, who drafted Jason Fox in April.
DL: Schwartz is hoping his revamped defensive line can live up to expectations, with Vanden Bosch and Suh headlining the new bunch. Schwartz, a former defensive coordinator of Tennessee, visited the former Titans defensive end in the offseason and was able to land the coveted defender. Vanden Bosch, a Nebraska product, notched 44 tackles and three sacks for Tennessee last season, and owns 42 career sacks. He is expected to help Suh, also a former Cornhusker, in his rookie campaign. Suh is a strong, high-motor player who can only make this unit better with time. The Lions added veteran defensive tackle Corey Williams in a trade with Cleveland, while Jared DeVries, Cliff Avril (41 tackles, 5.5 sacks) and Sammie Hill (26 tackles) will see action up front as well. Detroit recently acquired Seattle defensive end Lawrence Jackson for an undisclosed draft pick next season. DE Willie Young was drafted this season out of North Carolina State.
LB: Outside backer Julian Peterson (75 tackles, 4.5 sacks) is back for his second year in Detroit, but last year's leading tackler Larry Foote (99 tackles, 2 sacks) played one season with the Lions, then headed back to Pittsburgh in the offseason. The Lions hope DeAndre Levy (85 tackles, INT) can duplicate what he did last season in his rookie campaign as the starting middle linebacker, but a back problem has slowed him this offseason. Outside linebacker Ernie Sims was traded to Philadelphia in the offseason, leaving a position open for a defense that finished last against the pass, total yards allowed and points allowed. Zack Follett (10 tackles) has a chance to win a starting spot on the outside in his second year, and Jordon Dizon is out for the season with a knee injury, leaving defensive coordinator Gunther Cunningham in a bind for depth.
DB: Defensive backs Phillip Buchanon, Anthony Henry and Will James are gone, leaving the Lions with a young group in the secondary. Chris Houston and Jonathan Wade are expected to be penciled in as starters for a defensive backfield that finished last against the pass in 2009, allowing 265.6 ypg. Houston was acquired via trade with Atlanta. Amari Spievy was drafted out of Iowa this season and veteran Dre' Bly signed a two-year deal with the team in the offseason. Bly played four seasons in Motown after originally signing as an unrestricted free agent in 2003. There's no doubt Detroit's secondary will be busy in the NFC North with Green Bay, Minnesota and Chicago featuring quarterbacks who enjoy throwing the football. Louis Delmas (94 tackles, sack, INT) will start at free safety and newcomer C.C. Brown (69 tackles) will compete with Ko Simpson (30 tackles, INT) for the starting job at strong safety. Simpson inked a one-year deal back in April.
SPECIAL TEAMS: Jason Hanson is coming off a mediocre 2009 campaign in which he made 21-of-28 field goal attempts (75.0 percent). It was his lowest average since hitting 70 percent of his kicks during the 2001 season, but Hanson is a seasoned veteran and durable placekicker who made his NFL debut with the Lions back in 1992. Punter Nick Harris averaged 42.9 yards per punt in 2009, landing 20 inside the 20-yard line and four inside the 10. Long snapper Don Muhlbach, who was re-signed to a five-year deal in 2007, has been with the Lions since 2004. Aaron Brown and Derrick Williams will battle for return duties, as Brown led the team with 22.6 yards per return. Williams, in his rookie season in 2009, averaged 22.2 yards per return. Northcutt was the team's primary punt returner, posting 8.6 yards per return on 22 chances, but Burleson and rookie Best can return punts as well. Special teams coordinator Danny Crossman is in his first year with Detroit and held the same title in Carolina the last five years.
PROGNOSIS: The Lions appear headed in the right direction, but how far can a franchise really go one year after a two-win campaign? The optimism level is by far higher than it was the past two years after a few additions on defense, including top pick Suh. Detroit knows it's not going to compete for a Super Bowl any time soon but is beginning to put some key parts into place. Stafford has a year of NFL experience and makes the offense very competitive with targets in Johnson, Burleson and Pettigrew. The rookie Best and a more determined starter in Smith in the backfield should make Schwartz's offense a bit more potent and take pressure off of Stafford. The schedule will serve as an opponent to the Lions, who not only have to play the NFC North teams twice, but have the tough AFC East on the upcoming schedule. Four or five wins is a reasonable target for the 2010 Lions.
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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?
The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.
While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.
For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.
1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.
2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.
How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.
Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.
Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.
How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).
Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.
Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.
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